One more day. Tomorrow, February 1, is the first day that Class of 2012 recruits can officially sign their letters of intent to play college football with a certain school. Though the recruits can take longer, and some will, the vast majority of the prospects will sign, fax, and take a deep breath at some point tomorrow.
Penn State's class currently sits at 19 verbal commitments, and there is about 0.5% chance of any of those players NOT signing with Penn State. As we outlined last week, the Nittany Lions are hovering right around the 85-scholarship mark, so there shouldn't be much in the way of Penn State news tomorrow. With the announcement last night that Demetrious Cox will sign with Michigan State, the class is likely done. A late commitment is possible, but not expected.
Instead, we'll watch the other schools, the major prospects left, and any other fireworks that may occur. Additionally, the recruiting coverage at Black Shoe Diaries is slightly changing, so please read through for a programming note.
Mothership News, Part One. SBN Recruiting guru Bud Elliott put together his list of the top 25 uncommitted players in the Class of 2012. The article was published on Friday, so some of these kids may have since committed. But these are your names to watch tomorrow. PSU is not in it for any of these players, though many were targets at one point and one was a former commit (Armani Reeves), but Big Ten rivals are all over this list. Learn the names now, as you'll certainly see some of them in the future.
Mothership News, Part Two. The incomparable Spencer Hall helps you not lose your mind when following along tomorrow. Also found in the article are links to some of Hall's past works, including "Terms You Need to Know to Sound Like a Pro."Of utmost importance, especially to Tennessee fans:
Recruiting Host: NOT A PROSTITUTE.
Mothership News, Part Three. Bill Connelly takes a look at the stars debate, through the specific quarterback position. As expected, more stars = higher Passing S&P+ (a Football Outsiders stat line). Additionally, Connelly looks at the migratory patterns of these blue-chip quarterbacks, noting that higher rated passers tend to wander if they don't see quick action.
Mothersh...Just Kidding. Actual Penn State News. Since we're not going to be seeing much tomorrow as it pertains to our Nittany Lions, we can take a quick look to the future. Rather than try to get too in-depth just yet, here is a simple list of Class of 2013 recruits that are claiming offers. And I use the word "claiming" intentionally; in the early stages of the recruiting year, it is not uncommon for a recruit to say he holds an offer from a school, only to never see that offer materialize. Egos, misunderstandings, whatever get in the way, so take this list with a grain of salt. (Lists based on 247Sports.com and Scout.com data of 2013 offers).
| Name | Pos | Ht/Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Breneman | TE | 6-5/225 | Camp Hill, PA |
| Ben Gedeon | ATH | 6-2/205 | Hudson, OH |
| Buddy Brown | OLB | 6-3/210 | Williamstown, NJ |
| Christian Hackenberg | QB | 6-4/210 | Fork Union, VA |
| Corey Smith | WR | 5-11/175 | Grand Rapids, MI |
| Dajaun Drennon | WDE | 6-4/225 | Sicklerville, NJ |
| Derrick Green | RB | 6-0/215 | Richmond, VA |
| Greg Webb | DT | 6-2/290 | Sicklerville, NJ |
| Jonathan Allen | WDE | 6-3/225 | Ashburn, VA |
| Kyle LaPorte | WR | 5-9/180 | Piscataway, NJ |
| Michael McCray | ATH | 6-4/230 | Dayton, OH |
| Patrick Kugler | OT | 6-4/270 | Wexford, PA |
| Reon Dawson | CB | 6-2/175 | Dayton, OH |
| Robert Foster | WR | 6-3/190 | Monaca, PA |
| Rod Crayton | DT | 6-1/285 | Dadeville, AL |
| Ryan Burns | QB | 6-4/220 | Ashburn, VA |
| Tim Kimbrough | LB | 6-1/215 | Indianapolis, IN |
| Uriah LeMay | WR | 6-2/188 | Matthews, NC |
| Wyatt Teller | SDE | 6-5/255 | Bealeton, VA |
Star Debate, Rehashed. Dr. Saturday begins his annual review of everyone's favorite topic...the stars debate.
Programming Note. Beginning next week, the format for your recruiting updates here at Black Shoe Diaries will change slightly. We'll still bring you weekly football recruiting updates, but rather than be tied to one specific day of the week, the updates will publish when there is both time and a good amount of information to provide. Also, beginning right now, we're going to solicit email questions about both football and basketball recruiting. You can email me directly (jeffjunstrom AT yahoo DOT com), and then once a month (for now), we'll do a recruiting mailbag post in lieu of that week's update. Any basketball questions will be forwarded to our resident basketball recruiting guru, Eric.
0 recs | 161 comments
Ugh.
In years past, there was excitement for what the fax machine would bring.
This year?
Tailgate Shogun - January 31, 2012
Those young men would benefit
from using sledgehammers instead of a wimpy baseball bat.
PSU_Lions_84 - January 31, 2012
Stars
Even though they “don’t matter,” can you update the list of our commits with stars? Much more meaningful at a glance than height/weights.
PSUMBBtrumpet - January 31, 2012
If you look on the homepage, on the right sidebar, further down the page.
There is a running list of commits. I’ll have it updated, but it has the stars, heights, weights, and schools of each commit.
Additionally, in tomorrow’s Signing Day Open Thread, we’ll have the full list of 19 guys, updated as they send in their letter.
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
I'm fixing the sidebar right now.
I tried to arrange the recruits in alphabetical order, and the SBN editor crapped out on me.
Chris Grovich - January 31, 2012
Also, if you meant "recruit" and not "commit" for the Class of '13 kids...
It’s still a little early for stars, at least for most of the players. Scout and Rivals have only started to give out the top-end star ratings, while 247 has given out a bit more. However, it’s still early in the process.
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
STARS DON'T MA--
Oh, wait. They matter.
Chris Grovich - January 31, 2012
WE MUST PROTECT THESE 'KROOTS
Peter Gray - January 31, 2012
What's the official word on Mornhinweg?
Is there still a chance he comes here, or is he definitely out?
DrewRusse - January 31, 2012
He's committed to Florida
I suppose anything’s possible until he puts pen to paper, but I highly doubt he reconsiders.
Peter Gray - January 31, 2012
I'm going to say this now
barring some sort of outside incident, if we can’t get Adam Breneman, the new guys suck at recruiting.
skarocksoi - January 31, 2012
FORESHADOWING
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
When can a kid commit?
Cause I’m expecting him to do so the very first minute he can. Kid is quoting JVP and watching Pats game like a 16 year old who found out how to unscramble late night Cinemax on his cable.
skarocksoi - January 31, 2012
And by kid I mean a junior
skarocksoi - January 31, 2012
They can commit whenever they like, verbally.
And many have. But obviously nothing is final until Signing Day.
Breneman will be on campus February 27, FWIW.
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
I think Breneman will be a fight between
us and ND. They “stole” our last blue chip tight end (Koyak) and are going after Breneman strongly. However, not sure a TE fits their offense as well as it might O’Brien’s.
I am hoping Breneman starts a waterfall of Blue Chippers.
PaJoe - January 31, 2012
The only team that frightens me a bit is Miami.
He referred to them as the real TE U, I believe. And they are coached by a former PSU TE who can sure as hell recruit.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
He'd fit their offense.
And Golden is a good recruiter.
However, if there is a school with as bad a national image as us right now, it’s the Canes. We kinda put them on the “backburner” as a news item.
PaJoe - January 31, 2012
Disagree.
Breneman expressed great excitement when BOB was named HC, as he knows how TEs are well-used in the Pats system. I think Adam will see how this season develops, but is ours to lose if TE’s get quality time.
And we have used TEs effectively in the past. We just didn’t have them — or a QB — this past season.
PSU_Lions_84 - January 31, 2012
Friend told me (TIFWIW, I think smoke)
Breneman is already planning his third trip (on his dime) to S. Bend. I can’t confirm. But Breneman is a great name for a ND player (better than Koyack).
I hope not. I want him in blue and white.
PaJoe - January 31, 2012
Yeah
we should land this kid. No reason we shouldn’t. I believe there’s also a statistic out there that says a certain % of recruits (and I believe its a very high number, maybe close to 80?) end up committing to a school within 300 miles of where they live. Breneman is a top talent and perhaps that will lead him to look outside that area, but theres no reason we should lose on this one. He can get a coach who has helped produce two very talented TE’s in the NFL and could get the same treatment right in his own backyard.
Lets put it this way; we would have crucified the previous staff for not landing this kid. He should be locked up quickly.
skarocksoi - January 31, 2012
Very good point
jman07 - January 31, 2012
couldn't agree more but we do not need any more TE's.
NJDeadhead - January 31, 2012
He seems to be the type of player you make room for
And I dont see why we wouldn’t need a TE for next year. Only 1 in this years class, and some of those guys we currently have could probably switch to another position.
skarocksoi - January 31, 2012
Plus, Gilliam's already missed a year due to injury.
Either way, you make room for Brenneman.
Chris Grovich - January 31, 2012
yeah
pretty sure we dont curently have anyone on the roster at TE with his abilities. A guy like him is a real boon to an offense.
skarocksoi - January 31, 2012
This is madness.
If Brenneman comes in and is your most talented TE right away, you go get him. You can’t play 6 TEs anyway, so you move some of your TEs that wouldn’t play to LB, FB, DE and other positions that they also won’t play.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
exactly
I mean, most of the guys we have at TE now could probably slide to another position without too much issue.
skarocksoi - January 31, 2012
You always need "good" special teams players.
Tight ends can usually run well and have good size. Should be as good as any linebackers playing ST (except maybe tackling ability).
PaJoe - January 31, 2012
You always need excellent players.
Not going after Breneman because you think we dont need anymore TE’s is ridiculous.
The Heel - January 31, 2012
How does one get
a 103 rating? I thought such things were reserved for Chuck Norris and The Most Interesting Man in the World?
kdf5005 - January 31, 2012
I should ask
when can official offers go out to juniors? It was moved to August, right?
skarocksoi - January 31, 2012
Yes, August 1 prior to the recruit's senior year.
Verbal offers, taken with a grain of salt, can go out at any time. Lane Kiffin gave a verbal offer to an 8th grader a couple of years ago.
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
Sounds a bit Sandusky-ish to me.
J Breezy - January 31, 2012
hehe, those were the days.
double_e33 - January 31, 2012
We may find out pretty quickly why John Rollo rarely stayed in one place very long.
Nectir - January 31, 2012
Where are the OL?
Wokjab - January 31, 2012
This is a bad class
I could be wrong, and there could be some gems in there but wow ! Also, is it possible we are heading into next season with THREE (3) Scholarship TB’s ?? Am I missing something ? Are we going to a spread offense ? 6 TE’s and 3 RB’s smh.
NJDeadhead - January 31, 2012
not sure what was expected
We didn’t have a coach during the main time that you could recruit. I am surprised they kept the kids they did. If next year’s class does not look like it is going to be good then I will say our coaches can’t recruit. I would be scared if I was a kid coming into penn state. You are coming into an unknown place. No one knows how good BO’B is going to be. No one knows what to expect from penn state.
jetskijoe - January 31, 2012
And the NCAA did us a big favor by opening an investigation...
which may or may not have merit (I’m not going to debate it), but you can bet your ass someone used that against us on the recruiting trail.
BNittsDeMilo - January 31, 2012
Absolutely.
While some at BSD feel very confident the NCAA investigation is meritless, 17-18 year old kids and their parents don’t necessarily feel that way. Then, when a HC tells them that PS might get certain sanctions, many Blue Chippers are gonna shy away.
Realistically, as good as we are academically, athletically, etc., many other schools match up well. So if there is any “risk” factor involved, why choose Penn State unitil you are sure that we are entirely “clean”.
PaJoe - January 31, 2012
I believe this is why Cox didnt sign with PSU.
He loved his official to PSU… the only question he had coming out of it was the possibility of sanctions.
I’ll flat out say that I believe Meyer planted those thoughts there… and I believe he planted them with Williams and Reeves too.
Cant complain, what he did is fair. Its a scumbag move I think… but its fair.
The Heel - January 31, 2012
but it's also a bit hypocritical
considering OSU itself is facing sanctions. “Don’t go there—they may have sanctions! Go here—we KNOW we are having them!”
Cari Greene - February 1, 2012
Not sure it's bad.
Certainly, not good. The staff did go outand recruit DB’s strongly, got a couple to flip. They weren’t the highest rated on the boards, but they do look like good athletes.
PaJoe - January 31, 2012
Stars don't matter to me at all.
I just want kids who want to be here, and this class has that going for them. If the coaches can coach, then the team will win.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
this is how I feel
jetskijoe - January 31, 2012
All lumps of clay aren't the same.
Chris Grovich - January 31, 2012
No,
many of them have been groomed since they were first dug up so that a great sculptor would mold them into a musuem quality piece, only to blow apart once they are put in the kiln, while a less pedigreed piece of earth is used as part of a foundation for a great building that lasts for centuries.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
WOW!
Pure eloquence, 6244, pure eloquence.
PSU_Lions_84 - January 31, 2012
We can name things that COULD happen all day.
But that is a very micro view of recruiting. Star rankings are almost useless on an individual level. You can’t look at just one four star against just one two star and say that one is going to be better on just that basis. However, if you pair up 50 four star players matched one on one with 50 two star players, then more four stars are going to come out ahead. So you can say it is a slight to an individual two star rated player to suggest he won’t succeed, and you’d be right. But you can also look at an entire class of two star players and say they are very unlikely to be as successful on the field as a class of four star players and you’d be right also. The two are not mutually exclusive.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
Yes I agree it is nice to get classes with higher rated players
and they usually pan out more than lower rated guys, etc. But there are enough examples of teams with high rated classes completely flaming out, and teams with lower rated classes blowing up, to just say the hell with it, especially given hw shady and dirty the whole thing is. It is just a sleazy dirty part of the game that IMO needs to be cleaned up.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
Well, needing to be cleaned up I think is a very different argument.
And, again, like the low rated player there are examples of team’s with highly rated classes failing and vice versa. However, there are more examples of team’s with highly rated classes succeeding and lowly rated classes not being able to compete. If you are playing the odds, you want highly rated classes filled with highly rated players. Now, I don’t want to sell my soul for them, but there are plenty of schools able to do it without cutting corners I believe.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
sorry, "teams" and not "team's"
Just horrible.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
I admit that higher rated classes have a higher success rate
but there are enough examples of the reverse that in general i just don’t care much at all what recruiting services rank the classes.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
I guess for me it depends what you consider "enough".
Over many years you can name a handful of teams, sure. But if enough means there is a chance to be part of the say 2% of the teams ranking in bottom 80 for recruiting consistently that makes it into the top 25, then it’s not enough for me.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
I don't understand what is so hard about that.
Your numbers are silly, but the point is correct. I think there is enough, evidenc eof the contrar.y. If you, junny, uhaul and others disagree that’s cool, I don’t fault you for it.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
I hope I am not coming off as too confrontational.
I apologize if so. I’m not trying to attack you, I think of it more as friendly barroom debate.
And I don’t think my numbers are silly at all. If we start slipping to consistently pulling in classes ranked in the 40s and worse, I think the odds of maintaining a bowl eligible team or better every single year in our conference, along with say a top 25 team every other year fall very far down. You seem to think we could maintain the level of play we have achieved over the last 6-7 years if we get classes in the 40s, 50s, and 60s every year. I think the chances of that succeeding are overwhelmingly against us. Overwhelmingly.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
Why I said they were silly is because they were just made up.
And that is not what I am saying at all. I think to maintain a top 25 team you should probably try to be top 25 in recruiting, though I would say average stars is a better judge than total points.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
Anyone have time to research Iowa?
I admit I drink the “Ferentz does more with less than almost anyone else.” kool-aid. Not that I wanted him as our HC or that I want Scrap to end up there, but he seems to do well with low-star classes. (Note the stress on the qualifier “seems”.)
PSU_Lions_84 - January 31, 2012
If we take 2005-present
Iowa has done way worse than us with their talent. We have had two BCS Bowls and two B1G championships, they have had one BCS Bowl and no championships.
Yes, they’ve crushed our hearts in that spam, but I’m sure every Iowa fan would trade places in a heartbeat.
misdreavus79 - January 31, 2012
I love ironic misspellings.
skarocksoi - January 31, 2012
Mmmm Spam
nothing says good eatin like fake ham in a can.
jman07 - February 1, 2012
It's nice to have 5-star lumps of clay.
Uhaul - January 31, 2012
No way, any 18 kids off the street will do, as long as they want to be at PSU. Coach 'em up, BOB!
Chris Grovich - January 31, 2012
I think I know why you are friends with who you are.
Just dumb.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
While Chris may be exaggerating a bit, his point remains.
I understand the “I just want kids that want to play for Penn State” argument. But you can’t just sit back and sign the closest 19 players. You have to do work, and offer the top players, and stay on them. How successful would you be in the NFL if every draft pick was just some guy, relying on the coaches to get the most out of them? Wouldn’t work very well, and that translates to recruiting.
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
But you can't just go get 20 5star
recievers and not recruit lineman either. It just isn’t as simple as saying the best rated classes are always the best performers.
Obviously not every kid should be able to come and play for PSU just because he wants to, but I don’t mind having a few three stars or four stars, or even some two stars who really want to play and fill a needed role than a bunch of 5 stars going to the highest, or scummiest, bidder.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
I don't disagree with you.
I think the expectation level, though, is high for the new class. There’s no reason PSU can’t compete for the four- and five-star linemen, especially those in our core areas.
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
In my eyes
we should be landing a majority of 4 and 5 star guys in our traditional recruiting areas (really, most of our top targets) and pulling a couple guys here or there from non-traditional areas, then filling in the rest with 3 stars. That approach should give you a top 5 class most years I would assume. And if the talent is lighter in one area as opposed to another, you adjust accordingly.
skarocksoi - January 31, 2012
And as Spencer put so well
jman07 - January 31, 2012
Oddly enough
it seems to me higher rated lineman are more likely to bst at psu, but hopefully that will change now.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
I don't think that's necessarily the case
I think they bust everywhere—they are so difficult to predict. Probably the most difficult position to predict future success at.
Cari Greene - January 31, 2012
Would be interested in hbeach's
view of this. Can someone ring him up and ask him to opine?
PSU_Lions_84 - January 31, 2012
I've been very anti star in the past
but I can’t deny there is a correlation between star ranking and on field success.
I think being a lineman might be a factor in that anti star sentiment now that I think about it. like Notcar and FB state above, it’s probably the most hard to predict of all the positions. generally, o line take longer to develop physically…so maybe that 2-3 years is where the real variation occurs? with 2 years in the shadows, guys have a better chance of flaming out, getting hurt, getting homesick, flunking classes, etc. Just a theory.
hbeach08 - January 31, 2012
O-Line seems to be the position with the least correlation.
Uhaul - January 31, 2012
I didn't mean that to read more at psu than other schools
meant o-line at psu versus other positions at psu. sorry!
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
I think there is a fundamental assumption in our differences of opinion.
You seem to be assuming that top classes can only be achieved by buying players. I don’t agree with that. I think there is no reason that BOB&Co can get top 10 classes without dirty tactics.
A secondary assumption you are making is that top recruits are not coachable the way players with lower accolades are, and don’t have the desire that players with less acclaim do. I again don’t agree. If the coaching ability of our staff is a constant, then they will still have more success with better players who have a higher ceiling.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
In my opinion it is more likely
that higher rated players are more likely to require dirty recruiting tactics to get, and be less coachable when on the team than lower rated players, but I wasn’t using those opinions as the basis of my argument.
Mainly I just look at teams that win and lose and see enough highly rated recruiting classes stink, and lower rated ones go on to win that I don’t get caught up in the rankings.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
You're certainly entitled to that opinion.
But forgive me for saying that is troublingly pessimistic and patently incorrect. Granted I haven’t spoken with every five-star ever, but to think they are less coachable and/or require “dirty recruiting tactics” is just false.
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
You actually can't call it incorrect, you can just disagree.
But to think that 2-stars are less coachable and more likely to be open to dirty recruting than 5-stars is kinda silly.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
But I didn't say that two-stars were less coachable.
Only you made a connection to coachability. I don’t find any player more or less coachable than another. Does one come in with more or less physical/athletic ability? Yes. But unless they come in with a shitty attitude, all incoming players should be on the same level of coachability.
I don’t know where the dirty recruiting comes from. I’m sure there are two-, three-, four- and five-star players that are looking for handouts. Comparing that is a fruitless, and incalculable, effort.
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
I don't know why we are discussing this really.
I wasn’t basing my opinion on it, I thought somebody asked me about it.
But anyway IMO bad attitude and dirty recruting increase with star ranking.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
It is logically invalid though.
sctx109 - January 31, 2012
How so?
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
It does not follow from your premise. It can neither be true or false, but unless it definitively follows from what you stated, and the fact that you are a top recruit makes you less coachable, then it is not logically valid.
Sorry, BS logical statements.
sctx109 - January 31, 2012
Clarify
The last statement should indicate that the study of logic is BS.
sctx109 - January 31, 2012
LOL
I don’t know why we are where we are, but oh well.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
Simply that it is possible to criticize the statement, even though it can not be proven incorrect directly.
sctx109 - January 31, 2012
Yeah I agree with that.
It would be hard to prove either way, but it is just my opinion.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
For what it's worth
I do not really get the disagreement.
Is it possible to say any one 5 star recruit will be a better player than a 2 star? No. However, in general, is there a predictable relationship that a 5 star is more likely to be successful than a 2 star? Of course.
Now, maybe where you guys are talking past each other is that, by assuming any person that is coming to PSU in light of the current situation would be inherently high character, than stars would in some ways be not correlated with ‘character’.
Do I understand correctly?
sctx109 - January 31, 2012
Simply put, for me
there is enough error in recruitng rankings to not get worked up over it.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
I think if that were the start and end of it,
there wouldn’t be any discussion.
I think what really generates the debate is this aspect you have expressed:
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
I don't remember how it came up
but I didn’t think I was being controversial or that it was very important.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
It came up organically.
Regardless of its importance to you, you can certainly see how it is a statement that would stir debate though, right? I don’t think anyone is getting upset over it, we are just disagreeing. It is, after all, the internet.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
Anything can stir debate.
But like i said, I didn’t think it was that strange of an opinion.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
I'd agree with the premise though
Think about it, you have two guys, one is an all world quarterback, the other is a guy who can’t even tie his shoes. The likelihood that guy A could demand some things and stand a reasonable chance at getting them is much greater than guy B.
jman07 - January 31, 2012
I think the scale is different
but I don’t think the extent is different. The individual’s character and the school’s character are what lead to dirty tactics. Now, maybe a 2/3 star can only demand $500 from say, a Toledo, and a New Mexico would outdo them with $1,000. Those aren’t Cam Newton figures, but I think it’s the same thing. Only the scale changes, not the tactic.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
Agree the scale is different
Also think that it could possibly be a chicken or egg sort of thing too. Does the kid ask for perks because he can or because he knows the school will offer and vice versa.
jman07 - January 31, 2012
Yeah, I think it takes two mostly.
I doubt a kid that wants to get paid asks School A and not School B. Likewise I doubt a school would pay player A and not player B. But I don’t think the number of occurrences are any different across all levels of play, I just think we hear more rumors about teams that win, and have higher profiles.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
So you're saying that Auburn pays all its players?
Agreed. Now where’s Paige?
kijana's acl - January 31, 2012
Mr. Saturday lays it out nicely...
Here – It’s pretty hard to argue that stars don’t matter as a general rule.
Uhaul - January 31, 2012
In case you missed it, I will say again:
I agree higher class rankings and higher player rankings have a better chance of working out. And as I said before there is enough evidence of the opposite for me to not get worked up over them.
Feel free to disagree, I am not trying to change your opinion or viewpoint.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
What exactly is "enough evidence?"
Uhaul - January 31, 2012
A personal opinion.
not something i have ever quantified.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
Alright.
That’s cool.
Uhaul - January 31, 2012
As long as our lumps of clay don't turn from half-formed statutes back into lumps of clay in the middle of the season, I'll be pretty happy
And I echo the sentiment that I wish all the shapliest lumps of clay wanted to be Penn Staters, but I’ll take a true blue lump of clay over a locker room distraction or transfer.
/endstrainedsculpturemetaphor
PSUCharmas - January 31, 2012
Quality of talent matters. It's just not always accurately reflected by stars
There are plenty of excellent high school players out there who don’t get caught up in the recruiting hype massacre, but who have just as much potential as the kids on top-100 lists (likewise with 5-star kids who may have already peaked as athletes, or who might have other impediments to success at the college level).
Our staff was always good at finding kids with potential, regardless of their star ranking. Whether the new staff can do the same remains to be seen.
newenglandnittanylion - January 31, 2012
Stars are a snapshot of a player
at a given point and time — a time when these youngsters are continuing to grow and change. Thus, they are more of an indicator than a solid predictive tool, imo.
PSU_Lions_84 - January 31, 2012
Hard to complain about this class
No need to go into why. When all of It started, my highest hope was that we could stay afloat for a couple years (8-4 type seasons), then build things back up.
But, this will be two mediocre classes in a row, so it’s important that Bill and crew put together a good class for 2013. We’ll see what they’re made of. My expectations aren’t super high for this season, but I also don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that they could sneak into the B1G title game this year. Obviously, some success on the field will be a big boost for recruiting.
speedomike - January 31, 2012
This pretty much sums up my feelings.
A lot has gone on and this class alone won’t kill us. But three mediocre classes in a row would be very bad, and lead to a probable dip in the on-field product. However, it will be BOB&Co’s first real class, so we will see. Beating out Wisco and getting into the CCG while BOB runs around waving his SB ring would be nice.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
Well, one thing
PaJoe - January 31, 2012
I won't be doing tomorrow
is watching the signings on ESPN!
(Hit the post button by mistake. ugh!)
PaJoe - January 31, 2012
so is it two things you won't be doing?
or still just one?
psupride - January 31, 2012
Stars may not matter to you but often it shows the talent of a recruit
Stars do matter, but I understand you point on a recruit wanting to be a Lion. He is another thing about Breneman, I understand he’s talented but we already have 6 TE’s on our roster. Granted BOB may use some of his 2 TE offense next year do we need to add another ? I mean at some point you need to address the RB, S and OL & DL depth. We could also use some LB’s w/ us graduating 3 after this year.
NJDeadhead - January 31, 2012
There are exceptions to every rule.
But, generally speaking, there is clearly a correlation between stars and success.
Uhaul - January 31, 2012
You can tell that to Boise State, Iowa, Michigan State...
The Heel - January 31, 2012
See Uhaul's comment about exceptions
I can list many more teams that have hauled in excellent recruiting classes who’ve done very well against tough schedules. I can also list teams that have had good recruiting classes (with future NFL players) who’ve done exactly shit. You can find exceptions to everything, but, as Uhaul said, there is a correlation OVERALL.
And I’m not an OMG STARZZZZZZZ person, but even I can see that correlation.
Cari Greene - February 1, 2012
BOB must do a better job of keeping PA kids at home.
Here is an interesting article in RIVALS :
Keeping them home
Here’s a percentage breakdown from the past three recruiting classes (2009-2011) showing how many four- and five-star prospects signed with an in-state school. The list includes only the states with FBS programs:
State The numbers
Nebraska 100 percent (3 of 3)
Wisconsin 100 percent (4 of 4)
Alabama 88 percent (29 of 33)
Michigan 75 percent (18 of 24)
Mississippi 73 percent (22 of 30)
Louisiana 68.5 percent (24 of 35)
Iowa 67 percent (4 of 6)
Utah 62 percent (5 of 8)
California 61.9 percent (70 of 113)
Massachusetts 60 percent (3 of 5)
South Carolina 59 percent (19 of 32)
North Carolina 58 percent (18 of 31)
Oklahoma 55.5 percent (10 of 18)
Arkansas 55 percent (5 of 9)
Washington 55 percent (5 of 9)
Texas 54.3 percent (75 of 138)
Minnesota 50 percent (2 of 4)
Pennsylvania 50 percent (14 of 28)
Tennessee 50 percent (6 of 12)
Virginia 50 percent (15 of 30)
Florida 48.8 percent (78 of 160)
Oregon 43 percent (3 of 7)
Georgia 42 percent (31 of 74)
Missouri 41.7 percent (5 of 12)
Ohio 41.3 percent (19 of 46)
Arizona 38.9 percent (7 of 18)
Illinois 24 percent (6 of 25)
New Jersey 22.7 percent (5 of 22)
Colorado 20 percent (2 of 10)
Maryland 19.2 percent (5 of 26)
Kansas 12.5 percent (1 of 8)
Indiana 10 percent (1 of 10)
Connecticut 0 percent (0 of 6)
Hawaii 0 percent (0 of 4)
Kentucky 0 percent (0 of 4)
New York 0 percent (0 of 5)
NOTE: Idaho, New Mexico, West Virginia and Wyoming did not have any four- or five-star prospects in that span.
NJDeadhead - January 31, 2012
These numbers can certainly be telling, but I'm not sure you can assume much about keeping/losing in state talent without taking into consideration tons of factors.
I mean, you can interpret those numbers a lot of different ways. I guess it would be good to keep the top talent from PA in PA, but there are always going to be kids going to other schools out of the state, especially when OSU/UM recruit so heavily in PA.
What I took from those stats is that PSU needs to recruit top talent, and I don’t really care where they are from. It would also be great to get some recruiting base in FL, TX, or Cali. When roughly 410 4/5 star prospects are coming out of those 3 states alone, it would be great to get some talent from there.
GMac14 - January 31, 2012
I agree but
You really cannot touch kids from FLA, LA, AL, TX, CA. Those kids almost always stay at home. Even vg recruiting schools like OSU, MU, ND have a very hard time getting a kid say in AL or FL. to join them. Ohio St. had a couple of pick-ups but it usually doesn’t pay to spend big recruiting dollars in those states. Rutgers had some success in FL in recent years but they weren’t targeting 4 & 5 star kids, they concentrated on 2 & 3 star kids.
NJDeadhead - January 31, 2012
Conversely, the "warm weather" schools
find it relatively easy to poach in the northeast/midwest. This “one-way street” aspect is hard to overcome.
PSU_Lions_84 - January 31, 2012
Only if you assume that Pennsylvania is Penn State's only natural recruiting area.
Based on our previous success, our goal has to be to dominate recruiting from Maryland through New England, with a healthy presence in Virginia and South Carolina. It’d be nice to get back into Ohio on a regular basis as well, but those kids are being fought over by two other traditional powers who have deeper roots in the state than we do (OSU and Michigan).
There’s no reason that Penn State shouldn’t be the school of choice for great athletes in Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and the rest of New England. We need to do well in Pennsylvania (if for nothing else but appearances), but owning Pennsylvania alone won’t get the job done.
Just off the top of my head, we’ve had great success recently with kids out of New York (both City and State), many of which have been under the radar types – kids like Green (who provided excellent depth at tailback), Urschel, Matt Hahn, Mark Rubin, and Ollie Ogbu. Dukes looks like he’ll be a contributor at minimum. Maurice Evans was also from Brooklyn, but was a four star kid who everyone knew.
Adam Collyer - January 31, 2012
Forgot that Quarless was also from Long Island.
Adam Collyer - January 31, 2012
Quarless is from Delaware along with Latimore, Brown, and another?
Better recruits from Delaware for 2013, 2012 prettly lean in this small state.
DelawareLion - January 31, 2012
Pretty sure he's from Long Island.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Quarless
Adam Collyer - January 31, 2012
Sorry confused him with Szerba, DelaWhere?
Finally jump into the fray, but with incorrect information, my apologies.
DelawareLion - January 31, 2012
No worries.
I also forgot that Sczerba was from Delaware.
Adam Collyer - January 31, 2012
Exactly.
This state boundaries issue is silly. Go north or south of State College the same amount of miles it takes you to get west to Pgh or east to Philly and you’re in another state.
What difference does it make if a kid lives in Maryland, Jersey, NY, WV, etc.? If he’s good enough to play at PSU then it shouldn’t make any difference…I mean, they shouldn’t work harder recruiting a kid from Allegheny county simply because he’s an “in state” kid if a kid from DC is a better prospect.
Go get the best kids regardless of if they’re in state or not. Sure, proximity is an issue, but state residence shouldn’t be.
J Breezy - January 31, 2012
I agree
The one thing though is kids thke pride in where they are from so a PA kid my be from Philly which is what 200 -250 miles away still has pride from PA when someone closer say from OH is still a “outsider”. I am not sure I explained that well my apologies. Another point about PSU "dominating recruiting with kids from MD through NE. Based on what lacations were give on a different thread on BSD they are putting 4 coaches in FL. That leaves a lot of map for the rest of the coaches.
NJDeadhead - January 31, 2012
Truth.
There is a reason that Maryland comes in under 20%. His name is Larry Johnson.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
With Locksley back in Maryland, it will be interesting to see how it goes now.
Because Locksley is an absolute recruiting beast.
Uhaul - January 31, 2012
Did we just sign another DB?
Schwan Song: DE Picks Penn State I saw that over at scouts but have not heard much about him.
jetskijoe - January 31, 2012
Nope, defensive end.
http://www.blackshoediaries.com/2012/1/28/2754969/oh-hello-pa-de-evan-schwan-commits-to-penn-stat
And, “Schwan Song?” I could’ve guessed that was a Fight On State headline. I’m sure it was tweeted out in ALL CAPS, too.
Chris Grovich - January 31, 2012
my bad sorry
jetskijoe - January 31, 2012
YAY ANOTHER STARS DEBATE
Hopefully this means we’re getting over the sadness of the last few months
Artiefufkin10 - January 31, 2012
/curses Artie for discovering truth behind TWO stars debate links above
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
Come at me bro
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
Well, it is rather fun off-season fodder.
But it’s not all that complicated. Multiple analyses show that schools which have higher rated recruiting classes over the long haul tend to perform better than those with lower rated classes. In terms of how accurate those rankings are, it’s pretty solid on a multi-year level, noisier on a year-by-year bsis, and ridiculously variable when comparing, say, Antonio Logan El to Deon Butler.
Nevermind that teams are also recruiting for their system, and those things aren’t taken into account. A kid might be two-star in a pro-style offense and a four-star in a spread. A sure-tackling, smart CB could be a two-star player when evaluated in the context of pure man-cover skills, but be an all-conference player in Tom Bradley’s defense.
There are nuances, and everyone recognizes them even if they’re not always articulated. But generally speaking, you should really prefer that your coaching staff brings in higher rated players than your competitors. The data spread over a few years is kind of hard to escape.
Chris Grovich - January 31, 2012
Dude stop pushing your agenda on me
:-)
/Looking to ruffle some feathers.
Artiefufkin10 - January 31, 2012
We could bring in higher rated recruits if we paid more or offered free tats.
jman07 - January 31, 2012
This is far too logical and even-handed for an OMG STARZZZZZZ debate
I agree with it.
Cari Greene - January 31, 2012
Oh the stars debate...
how I missed thee
Esteban d' Amur - January 31, 2012
Any truth to Boyd really still considering us?
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
Well, we're beyond desperate for bodies in the secondary.
I don’t think he’s an option anymore, though. Possible, but kind of unlikely from what I understand.
Chris Grovich - January 31, 2012
Does Rice have any DB prospects we can poach?
stirs pot
:)
Uhaul - January 31, 2012
That stinks.
Based on the schools he is listing to choose between, I find it sort of sad we would be out of it. Oh well, best of luck kid best of luck.
PSUinBOSSton - January 31, 2012
If BOB...
is a good coach then guys will come to play for PSU. If he stinks, they won’t.
Esteban d' Amur - January 31, 2012
I think that loading the offensive coaching staff with NFL guys is a smart move
Recruits, especially the 4 or 5* guys that have legit NFL dreams, want to be in a system that gets them pro-ready, because the NFL scouts prefer those guys. If BO’B can show some on-field success, we’ll start to pull more of those kids in.
DrewRusse - January 31, 2012
I think it will take a few years to find out how well it goes.
If he is able to show that the offense is going to be good I think he will pull in kids. I think it will take more then one season tho.
jetskijoe - January 31, 2012
BTW Jeff and staff
I do like the recruiting updates and such, and think it is a good addition to the site.
FB6244 - January 31, 2012
Wait until Thursday.
Brand new coverage angle will be unveiled.
TEASER!
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
Teaser
TWHS.
PSU_Lions_84 - January 31, 2012
it would cool to see "Where are they now?"
For example take last years class and find out what * count they were and what they are doing now on the team. I might take that on if there is any interest in it.
jetskijoe - January 31, 2012
We did something like this a few months ago. Interesting stuff.
http://www.blackshoediaries.com/2011/10/4/2454683/they-come-to-state-college-with-stars-in-their-eyes-but-how-do-they
Adam Collyer - January 31, 2012
We also did this a couple of years ago
Right after the 2010 class signed, I believe.
It’s kind of impractical to do every year, but would be interesting to take three-year snapshots of the team.
Jeff Junstrom - January 31, 2012
It would be interesting to look at the incoming senior class
ie, the recruiting class of 2008 to see where they are at now. Something for the offseason to see how they’ve progressed (if they’ve progressed) and whether they are prime to be stars, regular contributors, busts, or off the team all together. I think FOS does the same thing and judges how they rated each of the prospects coming in to how they went out (though I would suggest skewing it toward the seniors for this coming season and how they will affect the team and not the outgoing seniors). Just an idea though.
skarocksoi - January 31, 2012
Great Class
This is a great class. We could have ended up with 5 commitments and I would not have been surprised. We lost to Wisconsin by seemingly triple digits and have a better class than them. We have a better class than Nebraska. We have a better class than Boise State. We have a better class than two or three classes we have had in the past decade.
We kept a number of kids committed before November, and added more since. We brought in the best talent from leagues that scouts do not look at. Last time we did that, we landed Silas Redd and Curtis Dukes.
Basically, we stayed afloat, and even filled positions of need with depth (and Lynch could be a star, best rb in NY). Staying afloat is extremely impressive in these circumstances. For example, look at the University of Colorado. After they got nailed for covering up the rape of several employees of the university by football players and recruits, they drowned. This year is really their first year back recruiting.
FB_Dive_or_Bust - January 31, 2012
For what happened,
this is a great class. We could easily have 10 commits in this class.
misdreavus79 - January 31, 2012
That's really not accruate.
You could find enough players to fill out a class with little difficulty…they just might not be very good.
Uhaul - January 31, 2012
oh look, another thread discussion about the merit of stars and why our coaches suck at recruiting.
weeeeeeeeeee!
mikeissurreal - January 31, 2012
To the people who look at this class and complain...
Maybe you need to look somewhere else for your entertainment.
Considering the Sandusky incident and the way the media has destroyed Penn State its amazing that one kid is in this class. Top that off with having NO COACH for two months during the prime recruiting period and a Head Coach who is NOT AT HIS JOB YET and this class is amazing.
And we’re still rated 37th in the country by 247 for this class.
I believe in four years we’ll be looking back with admiration at this class of kids, knowing that they came to Penn State because they loved the school, not because what some guy at ESPN told them.
I give everyone of these 3 star kids an extra star for having the balls to make a decision on their own and come to Penn State regardless of all of the turmoil.
Oh, and by the way heres a nice little USA today article about how top recruits dont nearly translate into All-Americans at the rate you would think:
http://www.highschoolsports.net/sports/preps/football/story/2012-01-29/signing-day-overachievers/52873472/1
The Heel - January 31, 2012
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