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By The Stars: 2012 Penn State Depth Chart

Defensive tackle Evan Hailes was one of the big four-star pickups for Penn State in the 2010 recruiting class. Will this be the year he breaks into the starting rotation? (MIke Pettigano/BSD)

Defensive tackle Evan Hailes was one of the big four-star pickups for Penn State in the 2010 recruiting class. Will this be the year he breaks into the starting rotation? (MIke Pettigano/BSD)

It feels like all I've done lately is depth chart stuff. But hey, for me it's fun. And today we're doing it in a somewhat different way... by using OMGSTARZ! to breakdown the roster and projected spring depth chart.

The internet has been mainstream for quite some time now. But most recruiting services/sites have not been, and weren't so quick to archive all their stuff old (like, for you youngsters, a time when we played CDs, recently discovered the joys of texting, and had no idea what a Tweet or Status Update was...) for easy reference. But as time passes, more stuff is thrown into the "Past Stuff..." dropdown menus, landing us in a fortunate situation here. I won't need to go back and dig too deeply for all the main recruiting sites' star ratings for Penn State signers the last few years.

Jumping right in, below the jump is the current (best guess) 2012 Penn State depth chart, with respective stars attached to each player...

Star-divide

Key: S=Scout / R=Rivals / L=247Sports (Lions247)

Offense Starters Backups Reserves
WR1 J. Brown - S:4/R:4 B. Moseby-Felder - S:3/R:3 M. Zanellato - S:4/R:2/L:3, A. Robinson - S:3/R:3/L:3
WR2 D. Smith - S:3/R:3 B. Belton - S:4/R:4/L:3 C. Drake - S:3/R:2
WR3 S. Kersey - S:3/R:3 C. Kuntz -S:2/R:2 A. Kenney - S:4/R:4/L:4
TE G. Gilliam - S:3/R:2 K. Haplea - S:4/R:3/L:3 K. Carter - S:3/R:2/L:3
OT Don. Smith - S:4/R:4/L:4 A. Gress - S:3/R:3 N. Cadogan - S:3/R:3
OG M. Arcidiacono - S:4/R:4 K. Kolb - S:3/R:3/L:3 A. Mangiro - S:4/R:3/L:4
OC M. Stankiewitch - S:4/R:3 M. Dieffenbach - S:4/R:4/L:4 T. Howle - S:3/R:3
OG J. Urschel - S:2/R:2 E. Shrive - S:5/R:4 F. Figueroa - S:2/R:2
OT M. Farrell - S:2/R:2 R. Nowicki - S:3/R:3/L:3
QB M. McGloin - NR R. Bolden - S:4/R:4/L:4 P. Jones - S:5/R:4/L:4
FB M. Zordich - (OLB) S:4/R:4 Z. Zwinak - S:4/R:4/L:3
RB S. Redd - S:5/R:4/L:4 C. Dukes - S:4/R:3 B. Beachum - S:4/R:4
Defense Starters Backups Reserves
DE S. Stanley - S:3/R:3 C. Olaniyan - S:4/R:4/L:4 S. Oakman - :S:4/R:4/L:4, J. Kerner - S:3/R:3/L:3
DT J. Terry - S:2/R:2 D. Jones - S:4/R:3/L:3 A. Zettel - S:4/R:4/L:4, A. Alosi - (OL) S:3/R:3/L:3
DT J. Hill - S:3/R:2 E. Hailes - S:4/R:3/L:3 L. Graham - (OL) S:3/R:3/L:3
DE P. Massaro - S:3/R:3 K. Baublitz - S:4/R:4/L:4 B. Bars - S:2/R:2/L:3 , D. Barnes - S:3/R:4/L:4
OLB G. Hodges - S:4/R:4 M. Hull - S:4/R:4/L:3 D. Royer - S:4/R:4/L:4
MLB G. Carson - S:4/R:4 K. Fortt - S:4/R:4/L:4 M. Yancich - S:4/R:4
OLB M. Mauti - S:4/R:4 B. Kline - S:3/R:3/L:3
CB S. Morris - S:3/R:3
CB A. Amos - S:3/R:3/L:3 D. Thomas - S:3/R:4 M. Wallace - S:2/R:2
SS M. Willis - S:3/R:3
FS S. Obeng-Agyapong - S:3/R:3
Specialists
PK A. Fera - S:3/R:3 S. Ficken - S:2/R:2/L:2
P A. Fera - S:3/R:3

On first glance... There are quite a few starters missing from 2011; many of those were seniors and highly rated recruits. But Penn State has had a history developing mid-range recruits. How that will change with the new staff remains to be seen. There is reason to be optimistic, thought everything is still unknown.

The stars... I'll break this down into first team, backups, and reserves.

Unit 5 Stars 4 Stars 3 Stars 2 Stars 1 Star/NR
Starters OFF 6 3 2 1
Starters DEF 3 7 1
Specialists 1 1
Backups OFF 1 5 5 1
Backups DEF 5 3
Reserve OFF 4 6 1
Reserve DEF 5 3 2

On the surface, what sticks out the most is Penn State's lack of five-star recruits overall on this roster. Are star-ratings the most important thing in the world? Just ask Deon Butler, Paul Posluszny, Tony Hunt or Daryll Clark. (Hint: The answer is "no"). But it does show how poorly Penn State has done the past five recruiting classes in landing the super-elite talent. The only five-star recruit on the chart was Paul Jones Eric Shrive and even he was a split (I gave players the higher of the two ratings if it were a tie) between Scout and Rivals.

But much of the analysis anyone can derive from this chart will end up moot, as the new coaching staff could scrap all that we have come to accept as the starting lineup. Still, with recruiting on the stage lately, it's fun to look at where Penn State stands heading into spring practice.

0 recs  |  111 comments

Comments

Wait ...

I’m confused … why is Jones 5 stars, while Redd and Shrive aren’t?

Jones isn't counted as a 5-star

Shrive is the lone 5-star on the team. Jones has rankings of 5-4-4, averaging him to a 4-star. Redd had the same breakdown as Jones. Shrive was ranked by only Scout and Rivals, as 247 wasn’t operating at that time. Since Shrive was split 5-4, he was rounded up, as were all the other splits on the chart.

Make sense?

That's what I figured ...

.. but the text said “The only five-star recruit on the chart was Paul Jones, and even he was a split (I gave players the higher of the two ratings if it were a tie) between Scout and Rivals.”

Yup, you're right.

That’s what I get for writing this at work… which is from midnight-7 for me. I’m a little hazy from that 2:30-5 stretch…

Thoughts....

There is a crazy amount of depth on the defensive line. Guys like Hailes, Barnes, and Oakman were really nice recruits and some of them are approaching two years in the system. You’d have to think with LJ and a new strength program that these guys have to be pushing for playing time in in LJ’s DL rotation.

Offensive line…lots of depth but lots of unknowns. Again, I hope that with new strength program and (hopefully) better coaching that this group can be talented enough for a two deep.

RB…is Beachum actually sticking around?

Defensive back…whoa boy…that lack of depth is scary.

Holy fuck DB depth

Can’t believe we always have such a hard time recruiting elite DB talents. Reeves would have been a Day 1 starter here.

Agreed..

Missing out on Reeves and Cox were killer. Those guys would have easily been in the two deep.

Stars on the Super Bowl Rosters

An interesting complement to this post is one over at Rivals by Steve Megargee about how Rivals’ ranked the players on the Super Bowl rosters.

Of the 106 combined guys on the two Super Bowl rosters, 39 (37%) were college recruits in the pre-Rivals era, so you can’t really comment on how they might have been ranked by the services in their day. Of the remainig 67 players, 10 players (15% of 67) had NO stars; 16 players (24%) had 2 stars; 19 players (28%) had 3 stars; 19 players (28%) had 4 stars, and only 3 players (5%) had five stars. The Five star guys: backup QB Ryan Mallet, Kenny Phillips and Brandon Spikes.

I have done a similar breakdown of the guys listed above, but we definitely have fewer “no star” guys and probably have a similar ratio of 3, 4, and 5 star guys.

I have NOT done a similar breakdown...
Interesting...

I know this is a bit off topic, but I find it amazing the Patriots got to the superbowl in the first place. I mean, who’s there starting running back? And their primary offensive weapons are welker and two tight ends? That organization does a good job of just plugging guys in and winning.

You can knock their competition all you want, but it sort of reminds me of Boise State in that they seem to win with without the high profile guys.

They have...

at worst – the 5th best QB in the league, the best TE, and the guy who lead the league in receptions (except for the one that mattered). I don’t see the Pats lacking star power on that side of the ball. They have no great players on D, which is why they lost yesterday and haven’t won a superbowl since 2004.

Vince Wilfork is a perrenial all pro and likely headed to the hall of fame

after him, though, it’s a big dropoff.

He's also stupidly overweight and easy to take out of plays by a competent lineman.

As was evidenced last night.

Kind of like Gilbert Brown on those late 90's Packers teams.
Wilfork was the best player for either team on the field against Baltimore.

It wasn’t even particularly close. He gets doubled on almost every play too.

This.

A half-decent defense wins them that game. They need DBs as badly as we do.

I see what you're saying...

but look at the comparisons between both teams…

QB – even
RB – Jacobs, Ware and Bradshaw vs. Woodhead(!!!), Green-Ellis
WR – Manningham, Nicks, Cruz vs Branch, Welker
TE – Pats have the advantage there..

All I’m saying is that on paper they don’t seem like they should be that good. But they play exceptionally well. They find creative ways of getting these guys yards.

When you have a team that is never amazing on paper

but consistently performs at the highest level (or near it), that’s called having a damn good coach. I hate Bill Belichick, but that man is an amazing coach.

I don't think there's anyone better than Belichick

at finding undervalued guys and turning them into productive players. He might eat babies at halftime, but he’s damn good at what he does.

HAH. This probably sums it up succinctly.
He might eat babies at halftime, but he’s damn good at what he does.

And don’t forget about the puppy-kicking habit, either.

Coughlin kicks puppies.

A joylessness-off between Belichick and Coughlin would be the stuff of legends.

And Yes, the Pats' D stinks
I don't know if the defense is why they lost the game

If before the game you’d have asked the Pats if they would be happy if they held the Giants to 21 points (19 points scored by the offense), I’m sure they would have taken it. The offense needed to find a way to put more points on the board and they didn’t.

Giving up 19 points against the Giants offense with all of their firepower is not evidence of a bad defense or one guilty of “losing” the game.

Well if their WR's could have hung on to the ball..

you’re probably looking at a different game.

Sounds like something we've been saying for the last six months...
True...

But I’d hope that after a few tries, Bill O’Brien wouldn’t continue to believe that Devon Smith is a deep ball receiver.

The definition of insanity….

By that reasoning then 'I'd hope BOB doesn't continue to believe

Justin Brown is a WR.’ Devon is very good at getting open deep. And McGloin and Bolden were actually both pretty good at getting the ball to him. His problem was he didn’t usually come down with them. But as we know, if a kid can’t do something in practice, Joe wouldn’t let them try it in a game. Smith must have been pretty good at catching those balls in practice – in fact I think I remember reading as much. And that started to translate to games toward the end of the year.

People rip on him all the time because he’s small. But his problem is confidence in his hands. IMO he really should have been RSed. NOT because of his size, but because he was an RB with mediocre hands in HS and he could really have used an extra year to learn how to track balls and catch consistently.

All that said – if we’re willing to give Brown a chance to continue to develop and learn to catch the ball, we should be willing to give my man Devon the same chance and not throw him under the bus all the time.

Don't get me wrong

I like the kid a lot, I just don’t think he’s used right.

The comparison is probably too soon, but he’s the kind of guy you want to get open in space, across the middle, etc like the Patriots use Welker.

Right now, I don’t think he’s a deep ball receiver. But I’d love for him to prove me wrong.

If you're 5'6"

and ceding six inches to the DB who’s a half-step behind you, that six inches in height suddenly becomes a big deal. You have to get the ball over the DB, which means the ball has to come in higher to and further out in front of the WR, which means the WR should probably NOT be the shortest player on your team.

I'm with Artie, I really like the kid,

I just don’t think he’s used correctly. Drag him across the middle and mismatch him on a ILB. Get him bubble screens out in the flat. Put him in space where he can make people miss and then use the state-champion track speed he has to accelerate faster than everyone on the field.

Again, if he'd caught 2/3s of the deep balls

that he’s gotten his hands on, you and others wouldn’t be writing that he’s misused because of his height. He’s good at getting open, and the QBs are accurate enough to get him the ball in a spot where he could catch it, more often than not. He just doesn’t track/hang onto them better. If he can learn to Deon Butler deep balls in the offseason, he’ll be a GREAT deep threat because of his silly speed. That said, he should be used underneath and coming out of the backfield a hell of a lot more than he currently is, too.

It should be noted that

a big reason Smith has to lay out on most of the deep routes is because the only way the ball is going to be delivered over the DB is if it’s slightly overthrown.

Until he shows that he can be a reliable deep threat, he isn’t and shouldn’t be used as such.

Also, Smith is so fast that when he's open deep, it's generally by

much more than just a half-step.

Yeah but he's so short

That he needs about 5 steps on the DB

They didn't have...

a guy on defense that could make a play, which is probably more my point. The Giants got plays from their defensive guys. The Pats only stopped the Giants when the Giants stopped themselves.

They didn't lose the game on defense.

They lost the game because they aren’t the same offense with a one legged Gronk.

That too.

And all those drops.

The biggest drop of all...

…was by that “ghostman” Brady threw his first pass to. If that “ghostman” catches that ball, it’s a totally different ballgame.

It looked to me like Gronk

cut his route off short on that, incapable of making the last cut. If you watched him, he ran an out and looked like he was trying to make a move upfield, but he stumbled on that leg and just turned to face the QB. If he was indeed supposed to run an out and up, then he was reasonable to have expected a receiver in the area. Of course, unless one of them answers the question I guess we’ll never know.

Ghostman? You mean Canolipants?

/oldBSD’d

Danny Woodhead went to what, Chadron State?

The NFL is good like that — if you can play, they’ll eventually find you. Even if it takes a while, and even if you can only perform a very specific skill well.

Of course, good luck with Chadron’s roster in the Big Ten, SEC, etc. on a weekly basis.

There's also value in finding talented, unheralded guys in the NFL

because of the salary cap. You could never afford a team of all-pro players in the NFL or of all first-round draft picks (or whatever’s equivalent to a five star recruit)…but in college, there’s no effective prohibition against having a roster full of the most talented players.

Very good point. There's an incentive to bargain shopping.
Moneyball

Because of the revenue sharing and equal playing field, no one has gone all statistical in the NFL yet. But there are Super Bowls to be won by the team that gets away from the combine and hires a few phDs.

OK, I did the PSU roster too (according to the table at the bottom of the post)

5 Stars: SB rosters 3 (4%); PSU roster 1 (1.5%)
4 Stars: SB rosters 19 (28%); PSU roster 28 (42%)
3 Stars: SB rosters 19 (28%); PSU roster 28 (42%)
2 Stars: SB rosters 16 (24%); PSU roster 8 (12%)
No Stars: SB rosters 10 (15%); PSU roster 1 (1.5%)

So, even though PSU has a lower percentage of 5 star players, PSU has a more “talented” roster (according to the recruiting rankings) than the “average” super bowl 46 roster, because we have such a preponderance of 3 and 4 star recruits, and a paucity of 2 and no star recruits, whereas there seems to be more balance in the super bowl rosters…

There is something to be said about paying a guy a few hundred thousand dollars for a 1-3 year shot to actually play in the NFL.

And the amount of work he’ll put into making the most of that one chance.

Compared to say, a guy that has teams falling all over him no matter how little he actually produces, simply because he’s a big name guy / famous college player.

presumably that same logic would apply to giving a scholarship

or a preferred walk-on to an unheralded player compared to a five star recruit who has every college coach and even some industrious bloggers calling him….

Which is why Woodhead scored a TD and Ochocinco can't figure out how to get on the field

At the end of the day, it’s not how many twitter followers you have that wins football games.

To be fair to Ochocinco last night:

When he was on the field, a lot of the plays he was wide freakin open, and Brady was checking down to a double covered Hernandez. Ochocinco had no one within 15 yards of him on that sack to make it 4th and 15, and Brady never even looked to that side of the field.

It's probably because Chad Johnson sucks.
Perhaps, but more likely because...

…Brady is vastly overrated.

I dont think he's overrated

I just think he’s beginning to hit the decline of his career. And he was still pretty good yesterday, but he just does not look like the fine tuned machine he did a couple years ago. I give him another 3-4 good years before he goes all Peyton Manning.

I don't know how you..

overrate a guy who at one point went 16-16 with 2 TDs.

Whoopee.

He didn’t complete a pass over 20 yards yesterday (same as he did in the last SB he played in). He had 27completions, but only 276 yards. He gets more time to throw than pretty much any other qb, yet he gets rattled fairly easy. He threw a pick, threw behind receivers a lot, threw that stupid pass from the endzone on their FIRST offensive play of the game (result of his being rattled) and he lost his second Super Bowl to a lesser team.

However, I’m not saying he sucks. I just don’t think he’s nearly as good as he’s made out to be, i.e., he’s overrated. If I had to pick one guy to be my qb he’d be pretty far down the list.

He had...

a long of 21. They don’t throw the ball down the field. His best target was hurt. His lone interception was high reward low risk play. 9 out of 10 times that play ends up in either a catch, a PI, or an incomplete pass. Some guy made the play of his career. Net effect was that of a punt. I saw nothing to indicate he was rattled yesterday. Welker dropped a pass he should have caught.

The Giants were the better team. The Pats are the better team only if Gronk is healthy.

These are the only guys I take over him to be my QB – Rodgers, Brees, and probably Eli. That’s it.

He was rattled

but what QB isn’t rattled when the Giants Dline is bearing down on you every single play? I don’t think that says anything about how good he is, as every QB in the league will get a little antsy if you constantly get in their face.

As for other QB’s, I’d probably take Rodgers and Brees over Brady, and thats about it.

I would also take Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman.

And maybe Curtis Painter.

Oh yeah...

how did I DERP that one. Grossman should’ve been on that list.

Everytime I see your screen name, I think of this:

I wear...

fewer puffy shirts.

The Giants didn't...

get great pressure on him. They covered pretty well, which isn’t typical for them, that caused Brady to hold the ball. Even on the safety, he had forever to throw.

They got tons of pressure on him.

Every other play the pocket completely collapsed around him and he had to scramble around.

Giants...

had 2 sacks and 8 hits on Brady. Pats had 3 sacks and 6 hits on Eli. I don’t think either QB was running for his life.

Stats don't tell the whole story.

There were at least half a dozen plays where a DL got a hand on Brady and he had to scramble away.

From the very first play (pressure forced intentional grounding) the Giants were letting Brady know he wasn’t going to have an easy night. Were there a few plays where Brady had all day? Yeah, and he was successful on those plays.

Watch both TD passes.

He must have sat in the pocket for 5 seconds with no one getting near him and 5 guys coming. If you had told me they got to him as little as they did, I would have said the Pats score 30+. Unfortunately, Welker and Hernandez weren’t getting open enough to make up for Kowski (Gronkowski’s one leg).

Oops, my bad. I meant he didn't complete a pass...

…that traveled over 20 yards in the air. That 21 yarder (which of itself is nothing to crow about) included YAC.

On his interception, Brady could have scrambled for at least a ten yard gain

Instead he threw deep to a gimp. Of course, if Brady runs, then he might get hit. I wonder why Brady elected a forty yard pass into coverage vs. a sure scramble? Actually, I don’t.

The Giants were in his head...

I think. Otherwise you scramble for 10 yards and slide to avoid the hit. Something tells me he didn’t wanna get hit.

Wait, what?

The interception? Where JPP hit him in the grill while he was throwing it? Even if he doesn’t hesitate JPP is chasing him down for a loss on the play.

To be clear, I'm not saying he should have thrown THAT pass,

but he is getting taken down for a loss or no gain on that play. That might be the fastest DE in the game that broke free after him.

He had escaped the rush (miraculously)

and had a clear running lane. The fact that he pulled up, took time to look deep down field and fix his hair is why he got hit.

And for the record

If I had to pick a quarterback to make one throw without a pass rush, Brady’s the guy. He now seems like a guy who rattles more easily than he did in year’s past.

Brady and Manning have done the old switch-a-roo

Eli hangs tough even though he knows hes going to get blasted. Quite the difference from earlier in his career.

I think getting blasted in the knee will have that effect

Carson Palmer was never the same post-Kimo.

I think Brady hangs in there when...

he has too. He tries to buy as much time as he can. It’s not like he looked like Rob Bolden out there. He had a pretty good game.

Ever since Bernard Pollard

(yes the same Bernard Pollard that took Welker out and ruined the 2009 season, and Gronk out and ruined the 2011 season), he has had problems once you see him start to get happy feet. Once you see him set, go through his reads, and start to just shuffle his feet while scanning, you know bad things are coming.

Yeah, I don't see it.

Again, not calling it a good decision, because I don’t think heaving that particular throw was. He deserves some criticism. But no way he gets positive yards. Seriously watch how long JPP closes again, if Brady doesn’t hold back he gets maybe 3 steps.

Agreed...

he’s slow as it is..no way he makes the first down.

That was a fair decision by Brady

The result of the play — the interception — was essentially equal to a punt. It was bad that they lost possession, but at least they lost it 40 yards downfield. There were three other viable things that could have happened: Gronk could have caught the ball or he could have gotten a pass interfernce call or it could have landed incomplete. It was low-risk, high reward; the low-risk was what happened, but it wasn’t a terrible decision.

Definitely like a punt

If you wanted to punt on first down at midfield. Other than that, exactly like a punt.

There was a play in week 8 or 9

When the Patriots were losing and needed a big play and Brady found Ocho wide open down the sideline, threw him a perfect pass, and then watched in awe as Ochocinco let the ball dribble through his hands. You could read Brady’s face: “I’m not throwing to that guy ever again”

I don't think doing that sort of a comparison between an NFL roster and an NCAA one really works.

Try the same thing with Alabama’s roster and the “talent” will all be on Bama’s side.

that's probably true

it underscores the (limited) value of the recruiting rankings if nothing else.

I think this might underscore the incredible value

that having just TWO more 5-star players, truly elite-level game-changing players, can give to your team. It only takes one or two to change the way your team plays AND the other team plays.

This is very true

imagine our current team, but with a top flight TE who can make plays downfield. If opposing defenses try to just cover him with a LB, he can burn them for some big plays. They adjust and put a safety on him, that opens up single coverage on one of the outside receivers.

And really, thats what many people were saying we were lacking from the last regime. Those 2 or 3 5-star talents that would bring us up to the next level. You’re never going to be starting a half dozen elite 5-star recruits on both sides of the ball (unless you’re a big name school in a prime area like USC or Florida) so you need to grab some game changers and coach up the rest of your talent.

Beachum

Is he staying for his last year? I thought he was gone, but I see he’s on the chart.

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